Libya’s Peace Deal Will Need Western Support to Succeed A UN-brokered Libya peace agreement is hamstrung by security challenges, the uncertainty that it may actually end up producing a third power center in a country that already has two rival governments, and questions about whether the envisaged national unity government would even be able to operate from Tripoli.
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Saudi Arabia Must Find Cure for ‘Wahhabi Virus,’ Says Iraqi Lawmaker Mowaffak al Rubaie is a former National Security Advisor of Iraq who currently serves as a member of parliament in Baghdad. In this interview with the New Atlanticist’s Ashish Kumar Sen, Rubaie discusses the war on the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), also known as ISIL and Daesh; the danger posed by Wahhabism; the implications for Iraq of the Iran nuclear deal; and much more.
Ending Syria’s War Will Require All Hands on Deck Nabil Fahmy served as Egypt’s Foreign Minister from 2013 to 2014. In this interview with the New Atlanticist’s Ashish Kumar Sen, Fahmy makes the point that the United States, Russia, the Arab states, Iran and Turkey will all need to work together to end the conflict in Syria. Here are excerpts from our interview.
What Will Lifting Iran Sanctions Mean for US Firms? Even after US, EU, and UN sanctions have been lifted, Americans thinking of doing business in Iran will be restrained by other US sanctions and prohibited from dealing with blacklisted Iranian officials and entities, a top Obama administration official said at the Atlantic Council on December 17. The possibility of “snapback”—sanctions being re-imposed in the event Iran were not to abide by its obligations under the nuclear deal reached in July—would also be cause for caution for those looking to reap business opportunities in the Islamic Republic.
Iran’s Swift Compliance with Nuclear Deal’s Terms Seen Creating a Verification Challenge Iran is implementing its commitments under a nuclear agreement at such a swift pace that it is creating a challenge for the verification process to keep up, the State Department’s lead coordinator for implementation of the deal said at the Atlantic Council on December 17.
‘We Need to Keep America Open Even as We Keep America Secure’ The Visa-Waiver Program is an “expression of one of the greatest soft powers” of the United States that is underpinned by significant law enforcement cooperation, and it would be a mistake to amend it without consulting partner countries, said Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President of the Atlantic Council.
British Defense Secretary Calls for Tightening Noose Around ISIS The US-led coalition that is conducting airstrikes on the Islamic State in Syria should more deliberately target the terrorist group’s infrastructure and “tighten the noose” around its de facto capital Raqqa, British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon said at the Atlantic Council on Dec. 11.
Election Victory? Check. Now Can the Opposition in Venezuela Stay United? Venezuela’s opposition has won an absolute majority in Congress that gives it the ability to initiate a recall referendum against President Nicolás Maduro, but it must instead focus on staying united and showing that it has the people’s interests as its number one priority, said Peter Schechter, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
Is the United States a Less Reliable Ally? The United States’ friends and allies in the Middle East see Washington as a less reliable partner and are “talking fairly openly about alternatives” such as Russia and China, retired Gen. James L. Jones, Jr., a former US National Security Advisor, said on Dec. 8.
In Venezuela, Maduro’s Fate Hangs in the Balance The opposition’s historic victory in legislative elections on Dec. 6 has created a two-front challenge for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — one from an opposition that could try to have him recalled, and the other from within his own United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) to which he is “dispensable,” said Jason Marczak, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
Putting Brazil on US Department of Labor Blacklist ‘Unfair’ The US Department of Labor’s decision to place Brazil on a list of countries where forced and child labor are practiced is “unfair” and could have an adverse impact on the South American nation’s exports, said an official with Brazil’s textile association.
Here’s What You Need to Know About COP21 Officials from one hundred and ninety-six governments are gathered in Paris with the goal of reaching the first-ever global climate change agreement. The negotiators’ main objective is to agree on legally binding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions intended to keep the global average temperatures below a 2° Celsius increase over pre-industrial levels. Heather Zichal, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center and former advisor to US President Barack Obama on energy and climate change, discussed the expectations from the COP21 summit in an e-mail interview with the New Atlanticist’s Ashish Kumar Sen.
NATO’s Invitation to Montenegro an ‘Important’ Response to Russia’s Bluster NATO’s invitation to Montenegro to join the military alliance — its first expansion since 2009 — is the right decision, has significant implications, and is an important response to Russia’s actions in Eastern Europe, said Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President of the Atlantic Council.
Clinton to Maduro: Respect Vote’s Outcome The Venezuelan government must respect the outcome of parliamentary elections scheduled for Dec. 6, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said at the Atlantic Council on Nov. 30. “As the people of Venezuela go the ballot box this weekend, it is really up to all of us in this hemisphere to ensure their will is respected, and that responsibility begins with the Maduro administration,” Clinton said, “which to date has been doing all it can to rig these elections.” The interdependence between the United States and Latin America “is an advantage that needs to be embraced,” Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Rodham Clinton said at the Atlantic Council on Nov. 30 while calling for the need to build on “the power of proximity.” Mexican Sen. Ninfa Salinas is on the left. (Imagelinkphoto.com/Dennis Kan)
US Response to Migrant Crisis an ‘Existential Issue’ Americans need to repudiate the “deeply offensive” anti-migrant rhetoric coming from Republican presidential frontrunners Donald Trump and Ben Carson that runs contrary to the founding principles of the United States of America, said R. Nicholas Burns, a former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. Carson has compared migrants fleeing the war in Syria to dogs; Trump would support establishing a database to track Muslim Americans; Jeb Bush would prefer it if the United States took in Christian migrants ; and Ted Cruz is adamant that the United States should only accept Christian migrants . Republican Governors, meanwhile, have said they will refuse to let any Syrian migrants into their states. “I think Donald Trump and Ben Carson, in particular, have made statements that go beyond the pale and that should be rejected by the American people,” said Burns, who is the Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of...
Turkey Shot Down a Russian Jet. Here's Why it Matters. The downing of a Russian SU-24 fighter jet by Turkey after it violated Turkish airspace and ignored ten warnings exemplifies the danger of Russian military support for Syria’s embattled President Bashar al-Assad. But it will also complicate French President François Hollande’s quest to include Moscow in a unified coalition against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS).
In Bangladesh, Radical Islam on the Rise as 'Battling Begums' Feud Radical Islam has taken root in Bangladesh as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League and Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Bangladesh’s main opposition party, have been embroiled in a bitter and long-running feud.
Transatlantic Relationship ‘Not an Optional Alliance,’ Says German President On a recent visit to the United States, German President Joachim Gauck delivered an impassioned plea for the revitalization of the transatlantic relationship, describing it as “not an optional alliance,” but rather an “essential strategic alliance.” He also called for far greater US engagement with Europe at a time when the continent is “surrounded by crises.”
‘Please Be Patient’ The international community must be patient and recognize that Tunisia is undergoing a delicate transition instead of applying unrealistic pressure on the North African nation to undertake reforms, Hussein Abassi, the leader of Tunisia’s powerful labor union and the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, said at the Atlantic Council on Nov. 4.
A ‘Band-Aid’ for Syria The Obama administration’s decision to deploy less than fifty US Special Operations Forces to Syria is a significant shift in US strategy, but one that is unlikely to tilt the balance on the ground in a war that is now in its fifth year, according to Atlantic Council analysts.
Wanted: A ‘Comprehensive Strategy’ to Deal with Russia The West needs to develop a “comprehensive strategy” to counter Russian authoritarianism and support Georgia’s aspiration of joining NATO, Georgian Vice Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Giorgi Kvirikashvili, said at the Atlantic Council on Oct. 29.
US Trade Representative Froman Confident Congress Will Back TPP A trade deal negotiated by the Obama administration and eleven other Pacific Rim countries, while not perfect, will eventually win bipartisan support from members of Congress, US Trade Representative Michael Froman said at the Atlantic Council on Oct. 27.
In Afghanistan, an Opportunity for the United States to Work with China and Iran Franz-Michael Mellbin is the European Union’s Special Representative in Afghanistan. In a wide-ranging interview with the New Atlanticist’s Ashish Kumar Sen on Oct. 20, Mellbin discussed the need for a sustained US and NATO troop commitment in Afghanistan, the opportunity created by the rise of Islamic State (IS) for Washington to work with Tehran and Beijing in Afghanistan, and the necessity for Pakistan to deliver on its rhetoric to show zero tolerance toward all stripes of terrorists that occupy safe havens in its territory.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Heads to Washington Though US President Barack Obama will meet Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at the White House on Oct. 22 in an effort aimed at rekindling a peace process in Afghanistan, it is the military that really calls the shots in the South Asian nation, Vali Nasr, a former Obama administration official said Oct. 16.
Walking a Fine Line in the War Against Boko Haram As it steps into the war against Boko Haram, the Obama administration will have to balance the need to deal with the regional threat posed by the Islamist militants and the very real limitation of resources, said J. Peter Pham, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center.
Obama Should Maintain Current Troop Levels in Afghanistan, says former US Ambassador The United States should not further reduce its military and intelligence presence in Afghanistan. Doing so will undermine Afghan security forces and “vitiate” the US’ counterterrorism mission in an important part of the world, said James B. Cunningham, a former US Ambassador to Afghanistan.
For Libya, ‘the First Step in a Long Journey’ The announcement by the United Nations’ envoy for Libya of a national unity government after months of talks is just the “first step in a long journey” for the North African nation plagued by chaos since the ouster of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011, says the Atlantic Council’s Karim Mezran.
A Three-Pronged Strategy to Deal with Putin The United States must develop a three-pronged approach that includes economic, political, and security components to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “retrograde ambitions in favor of the peaceful and progressive order the transatlantic community and the world had envisioned at the opening of the 21 st century,” retired Gen. James L. Jones, Jr., a former National Security Advisor, said October 8.
Berlin Wall to be Displayed at the State Department Swapping stories about their experiences in an East Germany that was shut off from the West by the Berlin Wall, US Secretary of State John Kerry and German President Joachim Gauck on October 7 commemorated the arrival of a section of the barrier at the State Department in Washington.
A Failed European Response to Migrant Crisis Will Hurt Transatlantic Ties, says Norwegian Defense Minister A failure to deal appropriately with the migrant crisis will cause rifts within Europe that will have serious implications for transatlantic unity, Norway’s Defense Minister, Ine Eriksen Søreide, said at the Atlantic Council on September 24.
In Greece, Alexis Tsipras’ Gamble Pays Off. Now What? Alexis Tsipras has won his third election this year. It's a remarkable achievement for a man who won his first election on an anti-austerity platform, his second after urging voters to support that position, and his third after doing a U-turn and accepting tough bailout conditions demanded by Greece’s creditors.
David Miliband: Europe’s Feeble Response to Migrant Crisis Threatens EU Europe’s “feeble” response to the migrant crisis—the largest displacement of people since World War II—is threatening the European Union, and European countries as well as the United States need to step up to do more to help these refugees, David Miliband, a former British Foreign Secretary, said in Washington September 18.
Is a US-Russia Confrontation Over Syria in the Cards? The Obama administration will have to confront Russia and Iran—supporters of embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad—if it wants to win the war against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), Frederic C. Hof, a Resident Senior Fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center, said September 16.
Instability in Guatemala Has National Security Implications for the United States Guatemalan President Otto Pérez Molina’s surprise resignation on September 3 in the face of corruption allegations will likely plunge the Central American nation into a period of further political as well as economic uncertainty with direct implications for US national security, said the Atlantic Council’s Jason Marczak.
‘Why is Pakistan Playing this Game?’ Shinkai Karokhail, a member of the budget and finance committee of the lower house (Wolesi Jirga) of the Afghan National Assembly and a longtime activist for women’s rights, education, and conflict prevention, sat down with the New Atlanticist's Ashish Kumar Sen for an interview on a recent visit to Washington.
Exiled Russian Lawmaker Ilya Ponomarev: Current US Sanctions Won’t Work The United States must expand the scope of its sanctions well beyond Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle if this effort—a response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine—is to have any real impact, says a Russian lawmaker.
Hacks and Attacks: How Do You React When China Conducts a Cyber Attack? When the news broke earlier this summer that hackers had breached the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and accessed the records of more than twenty million current and former federal employees, it prompted calls to punish China, which was believed to have orchestrated the cyber attacks.
Al Qaeda Affiliate Gets Out of the Way in Syria By deciding to quit frontline positions against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in northern Syria, al Qaeda-affiliate Nusra Front has made a US-Turkish agreement on establishing a safe zone in northern Syria more likely, says the Atlantic Council’s Faysal Itani.
Is Turkey’s War on PKK Hurting US Alliance Against ISIS? The US-Turkish alliance against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) complicates but need not impede, and might even ease, the United States’ military partnership with a Syria-based Kurdish group that has been instrumental in the war on ISIS, said Francis J. Ricciardone, Vice President and Director of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.
Will Europe Continue to Stand with the United States if Congress Rejects Iran Nuclear Deal? A steadfast alliance between United States and Europe—epitomized by a crippling sanctions regime—is widely credited with having brought Iran to the point where it was willing to consider curbs on its nuclear ambitions. But what would happen to that united front if Congress were to reject the deal reached between the so-called P5+1 and Iran in July? That’s a million-dollar question.
Senators Make Case for Lifting Crude Oil Ban A top Republican Senator, making the case that energy must be a significant tool in the US diplomatic toolkit, said July 30 that the United States will be “effectively sanctioning” domestic oil producers if it does not lift its ban on the export of US crude oil but lifts sanctions on Iran as a result of a nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic.
Turkey's War in Syria: Of Kurds and Ways A landmark agreement between the United States and Turkey—that allows US jets to use a Turkish air base to launch strikes against Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) militants and envisages the creation of a “safe zone” in war-ravaged Syria—is a step in the right direction, but also raises some important questions.
Nigerian President Slams US Law Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari—at war with Boko Haram militants at home—in a July 22 address in Washington lashed out at US laws that ban the sale of weapons to foreign militaries accused of human rights violations saying such restrictions have only aided the insurgency.
Libya Needs a Little Help from its Friends Even if a Tripoli-based faction were to set aside its grievances and sign a UN-brokered peace deal that would not be enough to rescue Libya. What the North African nation needs is an international peacekeeping force with a clear mandate to fight terrorists, says the Atlantic Council’s Karim Mezran.
#CounteringISISpropaganda Web-savvy extremists belonging to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and their online cohort of supporters dominate the conversation on Twitter leaving little hope for the success of US efforts to counter that propaganda, according to a former State Department official.
Every Effort Being Made to Avoid Grexit, says European Commission’s Dombrovskis Every effort is being made to keep Greece in the Eurozone, but the Greek government has to show that it can be a genuine partner by presenting a credible reform proposal in its bid to secure a bailout, a senior European Commission official said July 9.
At Four Years Old, South Sudan is the ‘World’s Most Failed State’ Four years after it won independence from Sudan following decades of war, South Sudan is once again trapped in a vicious cycle of conflict that has turned the world’s youngest nation into a failed state, says the Atlantic Council’s J. Peter Pham.
Here’s What You Need to Know About Lindsey Graham’s Foreign Policy Agenda Republican presidential candidate Sen. Lindsey Graham laid out an interventionist foreign policy in a July 8 address that was peppered with blistering critiques of President Barack Obama as well as some fellow Republicans and tough talk on radical Islam.
Narendra Modi govt’s crackdown on NGOs triggers chills on US campuses At universities across the US, students invent and innovate as part of projects often intended to benefit humanity. Pilot projects are implemented in sectors ranging from health and sanitation to education, in partnership with non-governmental organizations (NGOs), in regions of the world where the need is greatest. India has long been a top destination for many of these projects.
With World Focused on Ukraine, Russia Makes Moves on Georgia While the world focuses its attention on the Ukraine crisis, Russia has been quietly grabbing territory from another neighbor—Georgia. The Kremlin’s aggression against Ukraine is just the latest provocation by Russia in its neighborhood, Georgia’s Foreign Minister, Tamar Beruchashvili, reminded an audience June 12, pointing out that Russian forces invaded her country in the summer of 2008.
IMF: Ghani has Shown Afghanistan is ‘Open for Business’ Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has shown the world that his administration is “open for business,” but Afghanistan still faces “a lot of bottlenecks” that need to be addressed, the International Monetary Fund’s top official in Kabul said June 11.
At Last, Some Good News for Mexico’s Peña Nieto Mexico’s June 7 mid-term elections, which unexpectedly strengthened the ruling coalition’s majority in the lower house of Congress, will boost President Enrique Peña Nieto’s efforts to reform the Mexican economy, predicts the Atlantic Council’s Peter Schechter.
A Win for Democracy in Turkey Turkish elections that eroded the ruling Justice and Development Party’s parliamentary majority for the first time in thirteen years and put the country on the path to coalition politics represent a big win for Turkey’s democracy, says the Atlantic Council’s Francis J. Ricciardone.
Western Failure on Iran Deal May Cause Sanctions to Unravel Failure to secure a deal that limits Iran’s nuclear program in return for phased sanctions relief could unravel a crippling sanctions regime on the Islamic Republic if that outcome is perceived to be the West’s fault, two European diplomats said May 26.
Optimism over Cuba talks tempered with realism US President Barack Obama’s decision to normalise relations with Cuba has put the Cold War foes on the verge of reopening embassies in their respective capitals. As a five-decade-old US policy frozen into place during the Cold War starts to thaw, analysts are optimistic about the future of the relationship between Washington and Havana, yet that optimism is tempered with realism.
Will Greece Go Bankrupt this Summer? The Greek government and its creditors—the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund—have made mistakes over the course of three months of negotiations aimed at securing a commitment from Greece to undertake economic reforms before the latest €7.2 billion ($8.15 billion) tranche of the country’s bailout fund is released, says the Atlantic Council’s Andrea Montanino.
Is this the Solution to Europe's Migrant Problem? The European Union wants the United Nations to support its plan to destroy human traffickers’ ships in Libyan territorial waters before smugglers use them to ferry migrants across the Mediterranean Sea. Can it work? No, said Karim Mezran, Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. He argued that it’s “counterproductive” to publicize such operations.
In Britain, it’s Cameron… Again British Prime Minister David Cameron defied political pundits and pollsters May 8 by winning a second five-year term in office. With the results of all 650 seats declared, Cameron’s Conservative Party (the Tories) had won 331. A party needs 326 Members of Parliament to achieve a majority in the 650-seat House of Commons. Ed Miliband’s Labour Party came in a distant second with 229 seats.
With an Eye on Iran, Gulf Countries Seek US ‘Security Guarantee’ The United Arab Emirates and its five partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—worried about Iran’s hegemonic ambitions in their neighborhood—want a US “security guarantee,” Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE’s Ambassador in Washington, said May 7 at the Atlantic Council.
Barzani: ‘An Independent Kurdistan is Coming’ Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will hold a referendum on Kurdish independence once Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) extremists have been defeated, KRG President Masoud Barzani said May 6 at the Atlantic Council. Barzani couldn’t predict when an independent Kurdistan would be born, but added: “Certainly an independent Kurdistan is coming.”
A Night to Remember What do Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, Ashraf Ghani, Marillyn A. Hewson, and Toby Keith have in common? The answer to that question is probably: not much. That was until all four were honored with the Atlantic Council’s Distinguished Leadership Award at a glittering ceremony April 30 at the Ritz-Carlton in downtown Washington.
Would You Care More About Climate Change if You Knew it Would Change Your Life? Do you care much about climate change? How about the fate of polar bears gingerly making their way across thinning Arctic ice? Most people would probably care a lot more if they heard how dramatic temperature spikes and rising sea levels would disrupt their own lives, panelists said April 29 at the Atlantic Council.
Asian Bank not Intended to ‘Overthrow’ World Bank, says Chinese Official China’s proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will have a constructive and complementary relationship with both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank and is not intended to “overthrow” either institution, Zhu Guangyao, China’s Vice Minister of Finance, said April 17 at the Atlantic Council.