Ashish Kumar Sen

With the arrival of its troops and military advisers in Caracas this past weekend, Russia has upped the ante with the United States over how to deal with the crisis in Venezuela. While the United States — along with dozens of other countries — recognizes Juan Guaidó as the interim president of Venezuela, Russia has thrown its lot behind Nicolás Maduro.

The crisis in Venezuela is heading toward a showdown between Nicolás Maduro’s regime and the US-backed opposition, led by Juan Guaidó, this weekend.

Colombian President Ivan Duque said on February 14 Nicolás Maduro should relinquish his hold on power in Venezuela and face trial for crimes against humanity. He also called on the Venezuelan military to support Juan Guaidó, who is recognized by a number of countries, including the United States, as the interim president of Venezuela.

The United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Spain are now among the countries that have officially recognized Juan Guaidó, the head of the National Assembly, as interim president of Venezuela. This follows Nicolás Maduro’s rejection of a European deadline to call fresh elections—Maduro responded by offering to call a parliamentary vote instead of a presidential one.

Venezuela’s interim leaders, sensing that their dream of freedom “is tantalizingly close,” are in no mood to enter into a dialogue with Nicolás Maduro’s regime, which has driven the oil-rich South American nation into a humanitarian crisis while cracking down on its opponents. This week, under pressure from a growing number of countries, including the United States, Maduro has sought to involve his international backers, including Russia and Mexico, in a new process of dialogue with the opposition. Venezuela’s interim government is having none of it.

Even by Venezuela’s standards, it has been an unprecedented week for this oil-rich South American nation. In a span of a few days, the crisis that has been simmering for the past few years has reached a boiling point as the international community, including the United States, has turned up the heat on Nicolás Maduro’s regime.

US President Donald J. Trump’s recognition of Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela ramps up pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Caracas. The recognition is an important step, but also raises many questions. Jason Marczak , director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, addressed some of these questions in an interview with the New Atlanticist’s Ashish Kumar Sen . Here are excerpts from our interview.

The Venezuelan regime will likely turn even more repressive in the wake of a purported attempt to assassinate President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on August 4, according to Jason Marczak, director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.

Nicolás Maduro is expected to be re-elected president of Venezuela on May 20 in an election that most experts agree is a sham the United States and several Latin American countries have refused to recognize , and the European Union wants suspended until the conditions are suitable to organize a free and fair vote.

Jason Marczak, the newly appointed director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, discussed his vision for the Center and approaches to regional challenges in an interview with the New Atlanticist’s Ashish Kumar Sen. Here are excerpts from our interview.

Targeted US sanctions, including against Venezuela’s oil sector, would be a welcome move against a regime that has plunged this South American nation into an economic and humanitarian crisis, Luis Almagro, secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS), said at the Atlantic Council in Washington on July 21.

Obama’s Cuba Trip Exposes Cruz, Rubio as ‘Outdated’   US President Barack Obama’s decision to make an historic visit to Cuba in March will have a negligible impact on the presidential election in the United States; if anything, it has succeeded in exposing just how out of touch critics of this engagement—particularly Republican presidential candidates Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, both Cuban-Americans—are, according to the Atlantic Council’s two top Latin America analysts. US President Barack Obama met Cuban President Raúl Castro at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 29, 2015. Obama will travel to Cuba on March 21 becoming the first US President to make the trip since Calvin Coolidge visited in 1928. (Reuters/Kevin Lamarque)

Election Victory? Check. Now Can the Opposition in Venezuela Stay United? Venezuela’s opposition has won an absolute majority in Congress that gives it the ability to initiate a recall referendum against President Nicolás Maduro, but it must instead focus on staying united and showing that it has the people’s interests as its number one priority, said Peter Schechter, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.

In Venezuela, Maduro’s Fate Hangs in the Balance   The opposition’s historic victory in legislative elections on Dec. 6 has created a two-front challenge for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — one from an opposition that could try to have him recalled, and the other from within his own United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) to which he is “dispensable,” said Jason Marczak, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.

Clinton to Maduro: Respect Vote’s Outcome  The Venezuelan government must respect the outcome of parliamentary elections scheduled for Dec. 6, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said at the Atlantic Council on Nov. 30. “As the people of Venezuela go the ballot box this weekend, it is really up to all of us in this hemisphere to ensure their will is respected, and that responsibility begins with the Maduro administration,” Clinton said, “which to date has been doing all it can to rig these elections.” The interdependence between the United States and Latin America “is an advantage that needs to be embraced,” Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Rodham Clinton said at the Atlantic Council on Nov. 30 while calling for the need to build on “the power of proximity.” Mexican Sen. Ninfa Salinas is on the left. (Imagelinkphoto.com/Dennis Kan)

US Sanctions will Produce More Repression in Venezuela  The Obama administration’s decision to declare Venezuela a national security threat and slap sanctions on seven officials from the oil-rich nation gives President Nicolás Maduro another excuse to blame the United States for his country’s economic plight, according to the Atlantic Council’s top two Latin America analysts.

The arrest of the Mayor of Caracas is an attempt by President Nicolás Maduro’s crumbling government, which is under immense political and economic pressure to demonstrate authority, to consolidate the hardline base of the governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), according to Atlantic Council analysts.

U.S. expels 3 Venezuelan diplomats The Obama administration has ordered the expulsion of three Venezuelan diplomats from the U.S. after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month kicked out three U.S. diplomats whom he accused of fomenting unrest in the Latin American nation.

Obama administration denies U.S. responsibility for violence in Venezuela The Obama administration on Tuesday said the Venezuelan government is trying to distract attention from its actions by blaming the U.S. for the political unrest rocking the Latin American nation.

Obama administration: We weren’t told of Venezuela’s expulsion of U.S. diplomats The State Department said on Monday it had not been formally notified about the expulsion of U.S. diplomats from Venezuela.